Upgrading with points feels like a smart move. In most cases the maths says otherwise.

The Numbers That Change How You Think About Upgrades

Let’s use the Melbourne to Singapore route on Qantas as an example. Economy costs 29,000 points. If you then use points to upgrade that economy seat to business, that’s another 70,600 points on top. Total: 99,600 points to sit in business class.

If you book business class directly from the start, it costs 82,100 points.

You’re spending 17,500 extra points by taking the upgrade route. On a points balance most people have spent months accumulating, 17,500 points is meaningful. It’s the difference between a future economy redemption or a meaningful chunk toward another business fare.

The Second Problem Nobody Talks About

The points inefficiency is bad enough on its own. But there’s another layer. When you upgrade using points, the upgrade request has to be approved. It is not guaranteed. You could have the request declined, and end up sitting in the economy seat you paid for with no upgrade! Yes you’ll still have the points you tried to use for the upgrade, but when the ultimate goal is sitting in Business, this matters!

Don’t risk it and make sure you lock in your preferred seat from the start.

The upgrade path feels intuitive because the initial economy fare looks cheaper. Fewer points upfront, with the option to improve it later. But that framing ignores the total cost of the journey and treats the upgrade as an add-on rather than a core booking decision.

Points have real value and the upgrade route is one of the most consistent ways to erode that value without noticing it happening.

What to Do Instead

Before you book anything with points, decide what you actually want. If the goal is a business class seat, price it directly in points from the start and compare that to the economy plus upgrade path. In most cases the direct booking will win.

If economy is genuinely the goal and you’re hoping for an upgrade as a bonus, that’s a different decision. But go in knowing the upgrade is not guaranteed and not an efficient use of points if business class was the plan all along.

Work out what you want before you touch your points balance. What’s your approach to points redemptions? Comment below. Follow 5 Star Trip for more ways to make your frequent flyer points work harder.